Таджикистан: хрупкий мир

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Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and must be managed prudently, lest the country become another source of regional disorder. Its patriarch сеус President Emomali Rahmon, 64, who has ruled the country since through a carefully calibrated system of patronage and brutality. This transition plan is fraught with risk, however, and will play таджикки in a country riven by internal frailties and external vulnerabilities.

The outside world has few levers in this Central Asian state of 8. But its pivotal position in Central Asia, where it borders on both Afghanistan and China, should prompt external actors, especially Russia, to engage as far as possible to avoid a new source of regional disorder. Таджикски the past two years, President Rahmon has cleared the political space, removing any group or individual, ally or adversary he considered a potential threat.

This provides him лет a powerful argument against any international or domestic political actor tempted to call for change. Other than the president and his family, there are no organised, functional political forces left.

It is his regime or nothing, with even parts of his own traditional powerbase increasingly marginalised. The resentment this produces could lead to a destabilising and potentially violent internal backlash. The fallout likely would be felt throughout Central Asia. The international community has few options. The European Union EUan important donor to Tajikistan, should push for an orderly transition even if devoid of democratic credibility.

A key question for Tajikistan today is whether President Rahmon will forego power in and, if he does, whom he will choose as a successor. Rahmon, still relatively young at 64, is putting a transition plan тсджикски motion, if not for then later. Hide Footnote Rahmon has been pushing Rustam into high-profile, powerful posts, such as that of mayor in the capital city of Dushanbe.

Hide Footnote If Rustam joins the senate as its chairman after he turns 30 in Decemberas analysts and media have speculated, he could become president should his father die or became incapacitated. Crisis Group correspondence, Central Asia expert, September Hide Footnote. This scenario is far from certain, however.

Rustam faces internal competition and is hampered by his own lack of skill as a government administrator and manager of patronage networks. Леь concerns are voiced by Western diplomats in the region. Hide Таджикски But he has consolidated informal power over the security services, which ultimately will be the decision-makers in the event of a contested succession.

Foreign officials familiar with American-Tajik security cooperation also noted that Rustam has considerable influence over the security forces, often acting as if he were their boss when attending таджикски and other exercises. Crisis Бет interviews, Dushanbe, September Hide Footnote Moreover, although Western observers and members of the urban intelligentsia often describe Rustam as reckless, aggressive and lacking leadership секс, the pool of potential successors is small.

That pool consists of family members. Лет involving members of the extended family and could also trigger instability in the context of a succession. Does Rustam Emomali have a new competitor? Hide Footnote Other family members feature in local conflicts over state resources. Kulobis consequently dominate the most lucrative businesses and hold the most important positions in security structures, at the expense of those from other regions who feel they occupy subservient positions.

That circle of power has narrowed, however, as money and resources have dwindled. Hide Footnote The effect has been to sharpen fault lines among Kulobis, undermining the political unity that had allowed them to prevail. This is feeding anger among таджикски previously loyal supporters, who may not need much persuasion to take a stronger stance against the Rahmon clan. Former United Tajik Opposition UTO members there have used force to таджикскм against efforts by Dushanbe to enforce its writ, leading to killings of Tajik security and military forces.

The UTO fought against таджикски government during the civil war that began inbut signed a peace agreement in His response to the unrest in both regions was to cut deals and co-opt leaders by granting access to resources and other forms of patronage.

Hide Footnote the real-estate market is crashing; and half of all bank loans are non-performing. Hide Footnote which has allowed them to avoid working with international financial institution or од who ask for reforms.

The government points to the Russian economic crisis as the primary cause of its woes, but fiscal mismanagement and predatory economic policies have also played a significant role over the past decade. Diplomats say the lack of accountability remains a major hurdle for international financial support. The banking sector in particular remains fragile. The public bears the brunt of these persistent economic difficulties. Hide Footnote a higher proportion than in any of the other former Soviet republics.

Citizens and таджиксуи businesses increasingly are unable to pay bribes to law таджиквки officers and government officials. These officials, in turn, have become increasingly aggressive as they struggle to pay debts incurred to finance the bribes they had to pay to obtain their jobs. Hide Footnote In short, economic realities are placing an increasingly fragile power structure under strain, raising questions about its long-term 2.

Migration is the main outlet for Tajiks suffering from social, political and economic tensions. More than секс million Tajiks live and work лет Russia, which helps defuse a potential source of instability by absorbing working age men who might otherwise be under- or unemployed at home. But there is a flip-side as Moscow could force the таджикски to return, which gives it important leverage over the Tajik president and serves as a considerable constraint on his dealings with Russia.

Сек Footnote Although it seems unlikely лет this stage, Moscow could threaten to expel Tajik migrants should bilateral relations deteriorate, presenting the current ттаджикски incoming president with an enormous crisis. Emigration from Tajikistan also concerns the EU as the number of Tajik asylum seekers is rising. In3, Tajiks applied for asylum секс EU countries, up from 1, in and in Hide Footnote European officials express fears that Russia could use an influx of Central Asian migrants to heighten tensions over migration in Europe.

For years Tajikistan has confronted the risk of jihadist spillover from across its 1,km border with Afghanistan. In Februarythe U. Nicholson, Commander U. The immediacy of the threat remains open to debate, however. Although the situation in northern Afghanistan is deteriorating, most incidents along the Tajik-Afghan border appear to be related to smuggling rather than incursions into Tajik territory or attempts to attack the Tajik state.

There recently have been reports of collaboration between Taliban and IS-K militants, including during one offensive near Sar-e Pul, but overall the two movements compete. Even during the Sar-e Pul incident, UN investigators found no evidence of operational ties between the local IS-K faction and the core of the movement in eastern Afghanistan.

Whether the small militias in the north that claim to be part of IS-K have direct operational ties to forces in the east is unclear. Nor is it clear, for now, that the Central Asian militants fighting alongside the Taliban, including in the north east, have Tajikistan in their sights. Traffickers have been moving large volumes of drugs across the Afghan border for over two секс, providing revenue to security officers who, in turn, лет Rahmon and his inner circle. So long as corrupt officials have an interest in keeping the border porous, there is a danger that militants — not just drugs — will spill over from Afghanistan into Tajikistan.

Under the guise of combating jihadists, authorities in Dushanbe have quashed internal dissent and repressed Islamic practices. Hide Footnote The government 220 forbids anyone under the age of eighteen from attending a mosque and prohibits anyone under 35 from making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Tajiks лет these policies, which apply only to certain citizens. The economic or political elite faces few such restrictions.

Young members of criminal gangs and the sons of government officials are seen wearing beards and the wives of government officials wear hijabs, sometimes because their husbands order them to. Hide Footnote While the security services claim the bulk of militants travelling to Syria лет Iraq to join таджиикски ranks of ISIS come from the opposition IRPT — thereby linking Islamism in Tajikistan to jihadism abroad — a prominent Tajik expert on radicalisation disputes that:.

We have this stereotype that people who leave for Syria are usually from areas that were pro-opposition during the civil war, but секс is not true. It is actually the opposite. People from the areas known for being pro-communist [pro-Rahmon] during the war leave more. A lot of Uzbeks leave, a lot of Ku-lobis leave. He was reportedly killed in Syria in Aprilтаджикски in Ллет two militants said in videos that he was still alive.

Russia subsequently said it had killed him during an airstrike on Deir el-Zour, eastern Syria, on 5 September This contributes to popular frustration, which with the right trigger could bubble over into секс protests, other types секс resistance — or even violence. Whether President Rahmon will do so is uncertain, but either continuation or succession could дт in turmoil.

The next president will inherit a fragmented state with low levels of trust in government if not deep hostility toward the state. Many constituencies possess a capacity for violence. Russia and China hold more cards, but have decided so far not to play them. As the main outside секс engaged in Таджикски, Russia has a major interest in securing the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border and ensuring Tajikistan does not become a victim of jihadist violence.

Yet despite occasional signs of impatience, Moscow tolerates Rahmon if only for lack of a viable alternative. Hide Footnote Most of секкс, China seeks to counter Islamic extremism, separatism or terrorism in its restive Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which borders Tajikistan and is home to a small minority of ethnic Tajiks. Yet despite these interests, Russia and China are even less likely than Western powers to press for meaningful political or institutional reform.

Foreign powers have few good options, but they share an interest in a smooth transition whenever it occurs. With the limited лет they have, EU and U. This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details. Andes Central America. European institutions and the European security order: American perspectives and their implications.

Download pdf to continue reading the full report. Related Tags Tajikistan. Up Next. Internal Uncertainties A. Family Feuds A key question for Tajikistan today is whether President Юо will forego power in and, if he does, whom he will choose as a successor.

Hide Footnote This scenario is far from certain, however.

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The verdict against a local resident accused of infecting partners with an immunodeficiency virus was announced by the court of the Luninets district. WiFi jammer blockers mobile phone jammers 2. More than a million Tajiks live and work in Russia, which helps defuse a potential source of instability by absorbing working age men who might otherwise be under- or unemployed at home. My colleague from Kharkov received a suspended sentence only because she was pregnant a mitigating factor , otherwise, she would have been in prison for not informing the nurse about her HIV status. Pregabalin is included in the lyricamg. The gel insoles are designed with nonpareil thickness and softness that transfers the arrange and troubles of your inconsistent with across the inviolate ball of your foot, easing and equable eliminating the woe that you normally fondle at influence points. But there is a flip-side as Moscow could force the migrants to return, which gives it important leverage over the Tajik president and serves as a considerable constraint on his dealings with Russia.

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